Russell: Kutsika kwamtengo wachitsulo kumayenera kulungamitsidwa ndikuwongolera kupezeka, kuwongolera zitsulo zaku China

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Chitsulo chimathamanga kwambirikubwereram'masabata aposachedwa akuwonetsanso kuti kutsika kwamitengo kumatha kukhala kwachisokonezo monga kusangalatsidwa kwa misonkhano, zinsinsi za kupezeka ndi kufunikira zisanachitike.

Malingana ndi mtengo wazitsulo zopangira zitsulo zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito, mtengo watsika pakati pa 32.1% ndi 44% kuyambira nthawi zonse zomwe zinafika pa May 12 chaka chino.

Kuchulukirachulukira kudali ndi madalaivala ofunikira, monga zoletsa kwa ogulitsa kunja ku Australia ndi Brazil komanso kufunikira kwamphamvu kuchokera ku China, komwe kumagula pafupifupi 70% yazitsulo zachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi.

Koma kudumpha kwa 51% pamtengo wachitsulo kuti utumizidwe kumpoto kwa China, malinga ndi bungwe lopereka malipoti amtengo wamtengo wapatali, Argus, m'milungu isanu ndi iwiri kuchokera pa Marichi 23 mpaka $235.55 pa tani 12 pa Meyi. kukhala olimba kwambiri kuposa maziko a msika omwe angavomerezedwe.

Kuthamanga kwa 44% kutsika mpaka kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa $131.80 tani pamtengo waposachedwa mwina sikungakhale kovomerezeka ndi zoyambira, ngakhale kutsika kwamitengo kuli koyenera.

Kugulitsa kuchokera ku Australia kwakhala kosasunthika pomwe zovuta zakusokonekera kokhudzana ndi nyengo zidazimiririka, pomwe zotumiza ku Brazil zikuyamba kukwera pomwe zomwe dzikolo likuchokera ku mliri wa coronavirus.

Australia ili m'njira yotumiza matani 74.04 miliyoni mu Ogasiti, malinga ndi zomwe akatswiri ofufuza zamalonda a Kpler, kuchokera pa 72.48 miliyoni mu Julayi, koma pansi pa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi ya 78.53 miliyoni mu June.

Dziko la Brazil likuyembekezeka kutumiza kunja matani 30.70 miliyoni mu Ogasiti, kuchokera pa 30.43 miliyoni mu Julayi komanso mogwirizana ndi June 30.72 miliyoni, malinga ndi Kpler.

Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti zogulitsa kunja ku Brazil zidachira koyambirira kwa chaka chino, pomwe zinali zochepera matani 30 miliyoni mwezi uliwonse kuyambira Januware mpaka Meyi.

Kuwongolera kwazinthu zogulitsira kukuwonekera pazinambala zaku China zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, pomwe Kpler akuyembekeza kuti matani 113.94 miliyoni afika mu Ogasiti, zomwe zingakhale zochulukira kwambiri, kupitilira 112.65 miliyoni zomwe zidanenedwa ndi miyambo yaku China mu Julayi chaka chatha.

Refinitiv ndiyowonjezereka kwambiri pazogulitsa kunja kwa China mu Ogasiti, kuyerekeza kuti matani 115.98 miliyoni adzafika mweziwo, kuwonjezereka kwa 31% kuchokera pa chiwerengero cha 88.51 miliyoni cha Julayi.

Ziwerengero zomwe zapangidwa ndi alangizi monga Kpler ndi Refinitiv sizikugwirizana ndendende ndi zomwe zachitika chifukwa cha kusiyana komwe katundu amawunikidwa kuti watsitsidwa ndikuchotsedwa ndi miyambo, koma kusagwirizana kumakhala kochepa.

Chilango chachitsulo

Mbali ina ya ndalama zachitsulo ndi kutulutsa kwachitsulo ku China, ndipo apa zikuwoneka kuti malangizo a Beijing akuti kupanga kwa 2021 sikuyenera kupitirira mbiri ya matani biliyoni 1.065 kuyambira 2020 akutsatiridwa.

Kutulutsa kwachitsulo cha Julayi kwatsika kwambiri kuyambira Epulo 2020, kufika pa matani 86.79 miliyoni, kutsika ndi 7.6% kuyambira Juni.

Avereji yotulutsa tsiku ndi tsiku mu July inali matani 2.8 miliyoni, ndipo zikuoneka kuti zatsika kwambiri mu August, ndi bungwe la nyuzipepala la Xinhua lomwe linanena pa Aug. 16 kuti kupanga tsiku ndi tsiku "kumayambiriro kwa August" kunali matani 2.04 miliyoni patsiku.

Chinanso chomwe chiyenera kukumbukiridwa ndichakuti zida zachitsulo zaku China pamadoko zidayambiranso kukwera sabata yatha, kukwera mpaka matani 128.8 miliyoni m'masiku asanu ndi awiri mpaka Aug. 20.

Tsopano ali matani 11.6 miliyoni pamwamba pa sabata lomwelo mu 2020, ndikukwera kuchokera kumpoto kwa chilimwe otsika 124.0 miliyoni pa sabata mpaka June 25.

Kuchulukirachulukira kwazinthu zosungira, komanso mwayi womwe angapangire kutengera zomwe zanenedweratu mu Ogasiti, ndi chifukwa china chomwe mitengo yachitsulo ibwerera.

Ponseponse, mikhalidwe iwiri yofunikira pakubwezeretsa chitsulo muzitsulo yakwaniritsidwa, yomwe ndi kukwera kokwanira komanso kuwongolera zitsulo ku China.

Ngati zinthu ziwirizi zipitilira, zikutheka kuti mitengo idzakhala pansi pamavuto ena, makamaka popeza kumapeto kwa $140.55 tonne pa Aug. 20, iwo amakhalabe pamwamba pa mtengo wa $40 mpaka $140 womwe udalipo kuyambira Ogasiti 2013 mpaka Novembala chaka chatha. .

M'malo mwake, kupatula kuchuluka kwanthawi yayitali kwanthawi yachilimwe mu 2019, miyala yachitsulo yamawanga inali yochepera $100 pa tani kuyambira Meyi 2014 mpaka Meyi 2020.

Chosadziwika chachitsulo ndizomwe kusintha kwa Beijing kungatengere, ndi malingaliro ena amsika kuti matepi olimbikitsa adzatsegulidwanso kuti aletse kukula kwachuma kuti kuchepe kwambiri.

Pamenepa, ndizotheka kuti nkhawa za kuipitsa zizikhala zachiwiri kukula, ndipo mphero zachitsulo zidzayambanso kutulutsa, koma izi zikadali m'malingaliro.

(Zosinthidwa ndi Richard Pullin)